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END NOTE: EXPERTS PONDER POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF UKRAINIAN ELECTION
DISPUTE
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BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT CONGRATULATES YANUKOVYCH ON PRESUMED PRESIDENTIAL VICTORY. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on 23 November congratulated Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych on winning the 21 November presidential runoff despite the lack of a final tally in that vote, Belarusian media reported. In a telephone conversation, both politicians reportedly expressed their firm conviction that Belarusian-Ukrainian relations will continue developing dynamically and progressively. JM
UKRAINE ENTERS THIRD DAY OF POSTELECTION PROTESTS. Tens of thousands of demonstrators in Kyiv renewed their protest on 24 November against the official but still partial results of the 21 November presidential runoff (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 November 2004) for the third consecutive day, Ukrainian media reported. More than 2,000 people spent the night in tents pitched along Khreshchatyk, Kyiv's main thoroughfare, which was white after a heavy snowfall overnight. According to Channel 5, which has allied itself with the opposition, rallies pressing to install opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko as president were launched in "most Ukrainian cities" on 24 November. The previous day, tens of thousands of pro-Yushchenko demonstrators staged a peaceful picket at the presidential-administration headquarters, which were sealed off by riot police and special-forces troops. "I am asking you, the police, to be on the side of citizens of Ukraine!" Yuliya Tymoshenko, Yushchenko's political ally, appealed to the guards of the presidential administration. JM
OUTGOING UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT URGES TALKS ON POSTELECTION STANDOFF. President Leonid Kuchma on 23 November called on "representatives of all political forces in Ukraine" to meet at the negotiating table immediately to resolve the ongoing crisis over the disputed presidential vote, Ukrainian media reported, quoting a statement released by the presidential press service. "The political farce that is being staged now by the Our Ukraine bloc and its adherents who proclaim...a so-called 'popular president' and call for disobeying the orders of the legitimate authorities is extremely dangerous and could lead to unforeseen consequences," Kuchma said. Kuchma ruled out the possibility of authorities being the first to use force in the current crisis, he added that they are ready "to defend law and order [as well as] the rights and liberties of all citizens without exception." JM
YUSHCHENKO TAKES SYMBOLIC OATH OF OFFICE AT ABORTIVE PARLIAMENTARY SESSION. Opposition presidential candidate Yushchenko declared himself the winner of the 21 November presidential runoff with Prime Minister Yanukovych on 23 November and took a mock oath of office in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukrainian news agencies reported. The oath took place shortly after an emergency parliamentary session at which Yushchenko supporters unsuccessfully sought to adopt a resolution invalidating the Central Election Commission's preliminary election results, which by early on 24 November had not yet awarded a victory to Yanukovych but previously suggested he had won by a margin of roughly three percentage points. The session, which was boycotted by Yanukovych's allies and the Communist Party caucus, lacked a quorum (226 deputies) and failed to pass a resolution. Parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn commented that Yushchenko's oath was exclusively a "political act" that carries no legal weight. JM
YANUKOVYCH SEES 'NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY' IN UKRAINE. Prime Minister Yanukovych opened a cabinet meeting on 24 November and called on Ukrainians to live a "normal life," Interfax reported. "It is necessary for the people to live a normal life," Yanukovych said. "Nothing extraordinary is happening. That is why we need to carry out our constitutional duty and provide for the country's life." Yanukovych reportedly vowed to accept any legal resolution of the controversy over the presidential election. JM
LEGAL EXPERT ADVISES YUSHCHENKO TO APPEAL TO SUPREME COURT OVER DISPUTED ELECTION. Mykola Shelest -- head of the High Council of Justice, which is responsible for appointing Ukrainian judges -- told Channel 5 on 23 November that opposition candidate Yushchenko should ask the Supreme Court to invalidate the 21 November ballot in constituencies where the opposition has alleged election fraud. JM
FOUR UKRAINIAN TV JOURNALISTS QUIT JOBS, CLAIMING CENSORSHIP. Four journalists at the pro-government, oligarchic television channels 1+1 and Inter -- Kyrylo Yakubovskyy, Yevhen Hlibovytskyy, Viktor Zabolotskyy, and Yuliya Borysko -- have quit their jobs in protest of the censoring of newscasts, UNIAN reported on 23 November. During a news conference the same day, the journalists called on their colleagues at other television stations to either "speak the truth" or "follow our example and quit." JM
UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATS BACK YUSHCHENKO. Some 150 Ukrainian diplomats have signed a statement denouncing the official returns that suggest a victory in the 21 November presidential runoff by Prime Minister Yanukovych, the "Ukrayinska pravda" website (www2.pravda.com.ua) reported on 23 November, quoting Foreign Ministry spokesman Markiyan Lubkivskyy. "We cannot remain silent and observe a situation that could call into doubt Ukraine's democratic development and destroy the efforts of many years to return our country to Europe," the statement said. "A nation should be headed by a leader who enjoys the real trust of the Ukrainian people and whose personal moral authority will be decisive in strengthening Ukraine's authority." JM
UKRAINIAN COMMUNISTS WANT TO INVALIDATE ELECTION, GIVE POWER TO PARLIAMENT. The Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) has suggested it wants the presidential election to be invalidated and the country to be governed by the Verkhovna Rada until that body adopts a constitutional reform, UNIAN reported on 24 November, quoting KPU leader Petro Symonenko. According to Symonenko, the powers of the incumbent president need to be suspended and the cabinet should be guided solely by the parliament. JM
WASHINGTON URGES KYIV TO INVESTIGATE VOTE-FRAUD ALLEGATIONS. The United States on 23 November urged Ukraine not to certify its presidential-election results until claims of fraud are investigated, and warned Ukrainian authorities against the use of violence against protesters who believe the 21 November vote was rigged, Reuters reported. "We strongly support efforts to review the conduct of the election and urge Ukrainian authorities not to certify results until investigations of organized fraud are resolved," White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said. The same day, U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Washington questions the preliminary results of the Ukrainian vote "as they've been released. We are calling for, along with others in the international community, a complete and immediate investigation into the conduct of the election in order to get to the bottom of reports of fraud." JM
EU FOREIGN-POLICY CHIEF FEARS VIOLENCE IN UKRAINE. EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana told lawmakers in the European Parliament on 24 November that violence is possible in Ukraine in the wake of the bitterly contested presidential election, Reuters reported. "The country is now at the crossroads," he said. "We cannot rule out the outbreak of violence." Solana stressed that the future of EU-Ukraine relations is at stake in the ongoing Ukrainian standoff. "The way Ukraine handled the aftermath of the election will be the crucial test for our relations," he said. "The quality of relations between Ukraine and the EU will depend very much on the quality of democracy." JM
EXPERTS PONDER POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF UKRAINIAN ELECTION DISPUTE
Despite government warnings that any lawlessness will be quickly suppressed, Ukraine's liberal opposition has vowed a campaign of mass street protests and civil disobedience to overturn the results of the controversial 21 November presidential runoff. Regional experts, however, do not anticipate violence. They believe both the government and the opposition will try to seek a peaceful solution to their dispute.
The latest official returns suggested that with nearly all ballots counted, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych won the 21 November runoff with nearly 49.5 percent of the vote.
But opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, who according to the official count received less than 47 percent of the votes, is not conceding defeat. Instead, the opposition -- which claims the voting was rigged -- is vowing to stage round-the-clock protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
In response, the government -- which denies the fraud charge -- is accusing the opposition of contemplating a coup.
But despite the tensions -- and the apparent split between pro-Yushchenko western Ukraine and the pro-Yanukovych eastern regions -- analysts generally believe both sides will try to seek peaceful solutions.
Oleksandr Betsa, program director at the Kyiv-based Vidrozhdennya (Renaissance) nongovernmental think tank, said that despite Kuchma's pledges to not allow any "revolution" take place in Ukraine, he does not expect political developments to take a violent turn.
"To our view it is unlikely that authorities will consider a forceful solution. It is equally unlikely that the opposition will push the authorities into making such a decision. Everyone will rather seek a peaceful outcome," Betsa said. "One possible outcome would be, [for the opposition], to appeal to a court so that election results in those polling stations or constituencies where flagrant fraud was documented are cancelled. But for this to happen, they must first gather evidence showing that such violations did take place."
Speaking by telephone from Kyiv, Adrian Karatnycky, a senior scholar of the Washington-based Freedom House, said that Western countries and organizations might be instrumental in pressing outgoing President Leonid Kuchma to exert restraint in dealing with his opponents.
But he said that ultimately the outcome of the crisis will depend on the determination of Yushchenko's supporters -- particularly to continue with street protests when temperatures are already freezing.
"Winter is approaching. The temperatures are going to drop below zero in the coming days and it will be interesting to see whether or not the Ukrainian people in Kyiv and other cities are going to view [these protests] as a one- or two-day kind of a thing, or whether they will be very persistent in trying to uphold their rights," Karatnycky said.
One of the factors that might influence the determination of the opposition is the stance adopted by the Ukrainian legislature.
Members of the Verkhovna Rada met on 23 November in an emergency session to assess the political situation. However, opposition deputies failed to gather a quorum of 226 legislators that would have allowed them to move a no-confidence motion against the Central Election Commission.
Still, Betsa insisted before that session took place that more and more deputies were declaring support for the liberal opposition.
"We know that the number of those who [in the parliament] support the opposition is growing," Betsa said on 22 November. "Parties or deputies who were previously holding a centrist position now see that there were vote violations. If more than 50 percent of deputies declare themselves in support of the opposition, the legislature will be a more efficient force and will find itself in a better position to initiate any decision regarding the recognition of this election. The speaker of the parliament, [Volodymyr Lytvyn], has already strongly criticized the use that has been made of the country's administrative resources [during this election], and we know that he will press those deputies that are still hesitating to behave as people's representatives and act in accordance with the constitution."
One way the government might seek to defuse political confrontation could be to try to co-opt opposition leaders and convince them to join a coalition cabinet.
Karatnycky of Freedom House said that the Kuchma administration is giving serious consideration to such plans. However, he believes the opposition is unlikely to accept the offer.
"I've spoken with high-ranking [government] officials on the eve of [the runoff] and they basically gave me this scenario [under which] Yanukovych would win with two or four percent and they would need to have a coalition government because the country is divided. [But] I think that in the mood that currently exists, this is not likely," Karatnycky said. "I don't think the mood right now is for that kind of compromise on the part of these leaders. Knowing what I know about the opposition, there is no discussion of that kind at all right now."
Betsa of Vidrozhdennya also does not see any efforts at co-opting the opposition succeeding at the present stage.
"A coalition government is out of the question because it is up to an elected president to make such a move. As long as the opposition does not recognize the president as legitimate, then the chances are that it will refuse to enter any government," he said. "Only at a later stage can this option be considered."
(Jean-Christophe Peuch is a senior RFE/RL correspondent in Prague.)
END NOTE: EXPERTS PONDER POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF UKRAINIAN ELECTION
DISPUTE
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PUTIN REACTS TO POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE... Russian President Vladimir Putin said in Lisbon on 23 November that Russia can neither recognize nor protest the the presidential runoff in Kyiv because "no official results have been announced," Russian and Western news agencies reported. He added that "I can advise others to follow our example," in an apparent jab at the U.S. and the EU for condemning the conduct of the election. Putin admitted that he was too quick to congratulate Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych on his victory on 22 November before all the votes were counted (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 November 2004). He added that it was an informal gesture. "I really only privately congratulated one of the presidential candidates on his victory according to the information provided by the exit polls," RIA-Novosti quoted the president as saying. That contrasts with the fact that Yanukovych's opponent, Viktor Yushchenko, was decidely ahead in all exit polls. Putin added that only the Ukrainian Central Election Commission can announce the official results, and he called on both sides to follow legal procedures in resolving the conflict. VY
...SLAMS EU AND OSCE FOR CRITICIZING UKRANIAN ELECTION... At the same press conference, Putin slammed as "inadmissible" doubts expressed by the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) about the outcome of the disputed presidential elections in Ukraine, RTR and Reuters reported. "The Ukraine is a large European country with a developed legal system, we don't have to give the country lessons, it is the Ukraine that can give lessons to others," Putin added. "I am aware of the statement made by the EU foreign ministers with reference to the OSCE observers, in which the results of the elections were put into question," he said. "If someone continues to use OSCE observers for such purposes this organization will lose its international prestige and the very goal of its existence," he added, reported RTR. VY
...AS ANALYST SUGGESTS U.S., RUSSIAN, AND POLISH MEDIATION. The director of the National Strategy Institute, Stanislav Belkovskii, said that the present political crisis in Ukraine is the result of a bad strategy in the election campaign by the Russian and the Ukrainian pro-government strategists, apn.ru reported. Moscow made a one-sided and excessive push for Yanukovych, Belkovskii said, and added that "now a revolution has begun in Ukraine and it can be stopped by negotiations on the creation of a coalition government made up of Yanukovych and opposition leader Yushchenko." Such negotiations can be arranged only under outside mediation in which the role of mediator could be played by U.S., Russia, and Poland," he noted. It is true, Belkovskii said, that with its intervention in Ukrainian affairs, Moscow has already undermined its reputation in the eyes of the Ukrainian public. He added that he has information that the results of the runoff election were seriously rigged "by both sides." Belkovskii monitored the election campaign from Kyiv. VY
RESIDENTS OF NORTHWESTERN BORDER REGION WANT TO JOIN UKRAINE. Residents in Zlynkovskii Raion in Bryansk Oblast are collecting signatures to separate from Russia and join Ukraine, Ren-TV reported on 22 November. According to the station, the raion residents feel that federal authorities never responded to the area's problems when it was hit by the 1986 Chornobyl disaster, but the recent government decision to convert benefits-in-kind to cash was "the last straw." According to Ren-TV, "people will now have to choose between buying either bread or medicine." A few years ago a neighboring raion, Krasnogorskii, which was also affected by Chornobyl, said that they wanted to join Belarus, a declaration which resulted in the dismissal of the raion's leader. Now Nikolai Zevako, the head of the Zlynkovskii Raion, has categorically denied reports about the petition. "Novye izvestiya" reported on 23 November that Zevako is currently lying low in fear of a reaction not only from Moscow, but from the oblast's capital, Bryansk. However, a member of his staff told the daily that signatures for the petition have been collected. Krasnogorskii has collected some 5,000 signatures. JAC
EXPERTS PONDER POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF UKRAINIAN ELECTION DISPUTE
Despite government warnings that any lawlessness will be quickly suppressed, Ukraine's liberal opposition has vowed a campaign of mass street protests and civil disobedience to overturn the results of the controversial 21 November presidential runoff. Regional experts, however, do not anticipate violence. They believe both the government and the opposition will try to seek a peaceful solution to their dispute.
The latest official returns suggested that with nearly all ballots counted, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych won the 21 November runoff with nearly 49.5 percent of the vote.
But opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, who according to the official count received less than 47 percent of the votes, is not conceding defeat. Instead, the opposition -- which claims the voting was rigged -- is vowing to stage round-the-clock protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
In response, the government -- which denies the fraud charge -- is accusing the opposition of contemplating a coup.
But despite the tensions -- and the apparent split between pro-Yushchenko western Ukraine and the pro-Yanukovych eastern regions -- analysts generally believe both sides will try to seek peaceful solutions.
Oleksandr Betsa, program director at the Kyiv-based Vidrozhdennya (Renaissance) nongovernmental think tank, said that despite Kuchma's pledges to not allow any "revolution" take place in Ukraine, he does not expect political developments to take a violent turn.
"To our view it is unlikely that authorities will consider a forceful solution. It is equally unlikely that the opposition will push the authorities into making such a decision. Everyone will rather seek a peaceful outcome," Betsa said. "One possible outcome would be, [for the opposition], to appeal to a court so that election results in those polling stations or constituencies where flagrant fraud was documented are cancelled. But for this to happen, they must first gather evidence showing that such violations did take place."
Speaking by telephone from Kyiv, Adrian Karatnycky, a senior scholar of the Washington-based Freedom House, said that Western countries and organizations might be instrumental in pressing outgoing President Leonid Kuchma to exert restraint in dealing with his opponents.
But he said that ultimately the outcome of the crisis will depend on the determination of Yushchenko's supporters -- particularly to continue with street protests when temperatures are already freezing.
"Winter is approaching. The temperatures are going to drop below zero in the coming days and it will be interesting to see whether or not the Ukrainian people in Kyiv and other cities are going to view [these protests] as a one- or two-day kind of a thing, or whether they will be very persistent in trying to uphold their rights," Karatnycky said.
One of the factors that might influence the determination of the opposition is the stance adopted by the Ukrainian legislature.
Members of the Verkhovna Rada met on 23 November in an emergency session to assess the political situation. However, opposition deputies failed to gather a quorum of 226 legislators that would have allowed them to move a no-confidence motion against the Central Election Commission.
Still, Betsa insisted before that session took place that more and more deputies were declaring support for the liberal opposition.
"We know that the number of those who [in the parliament] support the opposition is growing," Betsa said on 22 November. "Parties or deputies who were previously holding a centrist position now see that there were vote violations. If more than 50 percent of deputies declare themselves in support of the opposition, the legislature will be a more efficient force and will find itself in a better position to initiate any decision regarding the recognition of this election. The speaker of the parliament, [Volodymyr Lytvyn], has already strongly criticized the use that has been made of the country's administrative resources [during this election], and we know that he will press those deputies that are still hesitating to behave as people's representatives and act in accordance with the constitution."
One way the government might seek to defuse political confrontation could be to try to co-opt opposition leaders and convince them to join a coalition cabinet.
Karatnycky of Freedom House said that the Kuchma administration is giving serious consideration to such plans. However, he believes the opposition is unlikely to accept the offer.
"I've spoken with high-ranking [government] officials on the eve of [the runoff] and they basically gave me this scenario [under which] Yanukovych would win with two or four percent and they would need to have a coalition government because the country is divided. [But] I think that in the mood that currently exists, this is not likely," Karatnycky said. "I don't think the mood right now is for that kind of compromise on the part of these leaders. Knowing what I know about the opposition, there is no discussion of that kind at all right now."
Betsa of Vidrozhdennya also does not see any efforts at co-opting the opposition succeeding at the present stage.
"A coalition government is out of the question because it is up to an elected president to make such a move. As long as the opposition does not recognize the president as legitimate, then the chances are that it will refuse to enter any government," he said. "Only at a later stage can this option be considered."
(Jean-Christophe Peuch is a senior RFE/RL correspondent in Prague.)